TIME: Almanac 1995

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<text id=93HT1009> <title> 52 Election: Primaries:Closer Than Ever </title> <history> TIME--The Weekly Newsmagazine--1952 Election </history> <article> <source>Time Magazine</source> <hdr> May 5, 1992 REPUBLICANS Closer Than Ever </hdr> <body> The Republican presidential contenders were pounding hard around the far turn last week, and the race was closer than ever. Bob Taft's strategy had been to leap into the lead at the post, and stay well ahead. Ike Eisenhower had started slowly, but had gained steadily after he settled down to run in earnest. Now, for the first time, the general was just about neck & neck with the Senator in the only statistic that really counts: the number of committed delegates. Chipping & Corralling. The closeness of the race was something of a triumph for both sides. Despite the great, popular groundswell that rolled up for Ike in New Hampshire, New Jersey and Minnesota, Taft had rolled up most of the delegates in Wisconsin, Illinois and Nebraska. But the Eisenhower forces had inched out important gains that upset the Taft organization's neat plan for early victory. That bloc of 500 delegates from three Taft strongholds--the Midwest, the South, and the Mountain States--plus more than 100 scattered reinforcements from other parts of the country. The Eisenhower forces chipped away some of Taft's Midwest bloc, e.g., Iowa, 15 for Ike, nine for Taft, corralled some delegates in the Mountain States, and were applying the Eisenhower brand of solvent to Taft's Solid South. Candidate Eisenhower's biggest single gain in delegates came last week when New York's district delegates were picked. The gain was expected, since Ikeman Tom Dewey controls the New York G.O.P. organization. But the figures were still impressive: 73 for Ike, one for Taft, 16 in doubt. In nine clear-cut contests between pledged delegate candidates, Ike won eight, Taft one. For the next month, the race will continue to be close. Ohioan Taft will make some important gains when his home state names its 56 delegates May 6. But Ike will be picking up delegates along the way, too. Neither candidate is likely to jump into a commanding lead until four big, key delegations begin to get into line. The four: Pennsylvania (70), Michigan (46), Texas (38), and California (70). Confusing & Varied. In Pennsylvania last week, General Eisenhower won another popular victory. He ran away with Pennsylvania's presidential preference primary, polling 847,420 votes, the most any candidate ever got in a Pennsylvania primary. Bluff Senator Jim Duff was the state's only big Republican in public support of Eisenhower, and the machine of former senator Joseph R. Grundy was solid against him. But Ike ran 31,000 votes ahead of Senator Ed Martin, who won renomination with the zealous support of all the regular G.O.P. organization. In eight head-on tests, the voters elected six Ike-pledged delegates, only two for Taft. Despite the Eisenhower victory, however, only seven of Pennsylvania's delegates could be firmly counted for Ike. Two were for Taft (who got a record 172,829 write-in votes in the preference poll), and the rest had to be listed as uncommitted. Reason: the presidential preference vote is just "eyewash" to the Pennsylvania politicos. The key man now is Governor John S. Fine, who will control 32 of the delegates. He wasn't saying where his votes will go, but he did not seem overly impressed by the primary result. Said he: "Election returns speak what partisans desire to read into them. Many of the answers are as confusing as they are varied." Confidence & Doubt. In Michigan, only 13 of the 46 delegates are solidly committed (seven for Eisenhower, six for Taft). But in Texas, where delegates will be chosen at a state convention May 27, and in California, where the delegation is still in Earl Warren's pocket, Eisenhower supporters struck one shrewd blow last week. H.J. (Jack) Porter, head of the Eisenhower-for- President Club of Texas, said he wrote Ike asking him whether he favors "state or federal ownership of the `tidelands.'" Ike's reply (which pleased oil-rich Texas and California alike): "Once again, I agree with the principle that federal ownership in this case, as in others, is one that is calculated to bring about steady progress toward centralized ownership and control, a trend which I have bitterly opposed." With the race in balance and the first ballot at the national convention only ten weeks away, both sides were outwardly confident. The Taft forces held firm to their prediction of 650 first-ballot votes, 47 more than enough for nomination. Said Henry Cabot Lodge, Ike's campaign manager: "We're in striking distance of the first ballot." But in spite of these calm expressions of confidence, the wise politicians on both sides knew that the big breaks ahead could still throw the race either way. Ruckuses & Rump Sessions In Colorado, Bob Taft's supporters swore that he would get at least twelve of the state's 18 delegates to the National Convention. Just to nail everything down, Taft's good friend Senator Eugene D. Millikin went home from Washington to speak up for Bob. The roof blew off before Millikin could raise a hammer. Eisenhower supporters under Governor Dan Thornton stormed the precinct and county caucuses, went on to take control of the district and state conventions. Last week the Ike supporters courteously permitted Millikin a place on the delegation, but rang up a solid victory for Eisenhower. The final count: Ike 15, Taft two, Harold E. Stassen one. Other convention results of the week: -- In Georgia, the officially recognized Republican faction took a chink out of Taft's Southern armor in ten district conventions. Results: ten delegates for Ike one for Taft, one for Warren, one uncommitted. -- In Louisiana, where Eisenhower supporters tried to outmaneuver the pro-Taft party leaders, Republicans split wide open and wound up in a whole series of rump sessions. Best pattern that could be drawn out of the post-convention confusion: eight delegates in dispute, two for Taft conceded by Eisenhower forces, five for Ike not disputed but not yet conceded by the Taft men. -- In Utah, Republicans met in the Rainbow Randevu, on Salt Lake City's South Main Street, argued so long over state convention procedure that votes were still being counted when the big Saturday-night dance started. While the band played Be My Life's Companion, the result was announced: 14 delegates down the line for Taft. -- In Minnesota, Republican leaders of the Third and Fifth Congressional districts, which were carried by Ike's spectacular primary write-in vote, met and confirmed the results: four delegates for Ike. Previous winner of Minnesota's 24 other delegate votes: Harold Stassen. -- In Arizona, Taft men wanted the state delegation committed to the unit rule, and the Eisenhower forces rebelled. When the argument tied the state convention in parliamentary knots, Pro-Taft Author Clarence Budington Kelland, national committeeman, seized the microphone and roared: "This convention is approaching a point of absurdity. It is a completely ridiculous mess. I move to get out of this mess that we adjourn." Finally, the convention abandoned the unit rule, did about what it was expected to: ten delegates for Taft, two for Eisenhower, two uncommitted. -- In Arkansas, where senator Taft himself keynoted the state convention, the delegates followed the keynoter: seven for Taft, one for Eisenhower, three uncommitted. <list> <l>DEMOCRATS</l> <l>Duel in the South</l> </list> On a grey afternoon last week, 150 police motorcycles popped and putted along Atlanta's downtown Peachtree Street. Behind them, in a red bus bearing the hopeful sign "White House, Washington, D.C.," a high-school band tootled Dixie. More than 250,000 Georgians, lined along the city's sidewalks and gazing out of windows, applauded as a hawk-beaked man in a blue Cadillac convertible smiled and waved his white Panama hat. It was Georgia's own Senator Dick Russell, the Southern Democrat's choice, come home to start his campaign for the Democratic presidential nomination. That night, 3,400 Southerners paid $50 apiece to squeeze into four dining rooms of the Atlanta Biltmore Hotel for Dick Russell's opening campaign fund dinner. Georgia's Governor Herman Talmadge and three neighboring governors--South Carolina's James F. Byrnes, Florida's Fuller Warren and Mississippi's Hugh White--were on hand. There were delegations from Louisiana, Texas and Alabama. It was an impressive launching of the S.S. Southern Democrat, 1952. Characteristic & Dry. Dick Russell drifted through the dining rooms soberly clad in black shoes and a neat dark blue suit. Then he took his place at one of the three head tables to deliver a characteristic speech, dry but sensemaking, warning against Government waste, defending states' rights and condemning corruption. He had to cut out his sharpest debating point because radio and television time was running out, and he didn't get to make it until a press conference two days later. The argument: he is the only Democratic candidate who can beat Eisenhower because he can carry the South. Said Russell: "With 148 electoral votes in the 13 states, I only need to get 118 from the other 35 states...." (Russell was using old figures. As a result of the 1950 census, the 13 states suffered a net loss of two electoral votes, now have 146.) The next day, Russell flew across the border into Florida to get down to urgent business. In Florida's May 6 presidential popularity contest--and in a second election 21 days later to choose Florida's 24 delegates--Russell is pitted against the current Democratic primary champ himself, Tennessee's Estes Kefauver. Four Blocks Away. Russell lost no time in taking aim at Estes' coonskin cap. Said he: "I understand my opponent has been here and addressed you...He's a member of the Armed Services Committee of which I am chairman. He is more fortunate than I in being able to stay away from Washington to present his candidacy. I have not been able to do that because I have certain specific legislative responsibilities...We would have been glad to have him with us to work...on important matters..." Russell took note of the Kefauver campaign methods. "I have noticed my opponent in the role of underdog. He has referred to the machine being against him...He is doing pretty well with his operation. I read where he has twelve rooms in a hotel four blocks from the White House. I hope that's as close as he gets..." Russell challenged Kefauver to a winner-take-all bet on the Florida primary, kept hammering away at Kefauver's sponsorship of Atlantic Union: "It will be a blow to the cause of liberty around the world to submerge the sovereignty of the U.S. with other nations." On his first day, Russell spoke to 7,500 in Gainesville, Ocala, Leesburg and Orlando, finished with a bright pink case of sunburn on his bald head. He planned 30 speeches in ten days. The Governor Was Out. Dick Russell knew he was up against some tough competition. Kefauver, the man with few delegates but plenty of popular victories behind him, had already trudged through a good part of Florida with hand extended, and would be back again this week. In Tallahassee, he marched into the state capitol to shake the hand of Governor Warren, who has been feuding with Kefauver ever since the Senate Crime Investigating Committee brought out some embarrassing facts about the political connections of gamblers in Florida. The governor just happened to be out. When Estes heard that a former Florida National Guard chief had refused to attend a Kefauver house rally, he was on the man's doorstep at 7 a.m. He was invited in, and talked over coffee for almost an hour. Said his startled host: "he almost convinced me." Kefauver called in his 81-year-old father for a handshaking tour, and Illinois' Senator Paul Douglas flew down for some speeches. Watching this duel in the South, most politicians and reporters agreed that the odds favored Dick Russell. He is the regular Southern Democrat; he has powerful organization support (from Governor Warren, Florida's full congressional delegation); he was drawing bigger crowds than Kefauver. But the experts were beginning to get a little leary of quoting the odds when Estes Kefauver is running. </body> </article> </text>